Shadowverse: What are the chances of getting a specific card?

The maths will surprise you. This article will teach you how to do the calculations.

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Shadowverse: What are the chances of getting a specific card?

We use this site in order to do the probability calculations.

Population size = How many items are we picking from? This means the number of cards in our deck, 40

Number of successes in population = Are there any duplicates cards in our deck? We usually have 3 DShifts, so this is 3.

Sample size = Number of card draws/card has been drawn. We use 3, or 6 if we replace all cards in our opening hand.

Number of successes in sample (x) = Do we need 1,2 or 3 shifts in our hand? We only need 1, so 1.

Hypergeometric Probability: P(X = 1) = Chances of getting exactly 1 Dshift in 6 cards = 34%

We do not need to look at Cumulative probability, as those are not used if we are only trying to gain one DShift, and not two.

The numbers speak the truth, if you play 100 games against D-Shift, 34 of those games will have that card be in the opponent's hand. The numbers may not seem like much, but DShift doesn't need to be in the opening hand, as long as it's drawn by turn 4/5 for Magic owl Evolution.

With 12 cards being drawn (turn 4/5 with concentrate/insight) when players can evolve, the chance of DShift being in the opponent's hand is a staggering 45.9%. Now, look at the following

D-shift win rates is very nearly identical to the % of how often that card is drawn by turn 4/5. Keep in mind, this is D-shift's win % when the ladder is filled with aggro, which is doubly astounding when you notice that Aggro has a great advantage over the deck.

With this information, you can now calculate the infinite possibilities. 

What are the chances of top decking Alwida or Albert on turn 5? It is 8%

What about drawing Bahamut after ramping up? 10%

What if you use trail or light or card draw? Then you will see those percentages increase to 10% and 12%.

Put this to good use the next time you create your deck.




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